I am not a Guild member but have knowledge of these and other negotiations at the Globe.
So far, you are the first analyst that has taken a serious look at what the Guild and their leadership has had to say throughout this process. From where I sit, it appears the Guild could have gotten this deal weeks ago.
The Guild took a calculated risk that the Globe would not implement the 23% pay cut,and that they would go back to the table with a mandate from their members in an attempt to reduce the $10M in cuts. Guild leadership let this opinion be known to many members prior to the last vote. They lost that bet, and they went back with a mandate from their members all right: Get rid of this 23% pay cut.
Make no mistake, it was the implementation of the 23% pay cut on its members that forced the Guild to bargain seriously.
Bottom line, the Globe (NYT) gets what they wanted all along ($10 M in savings), elimination of life-time jobs and an end to the pension, with a deal the Guild could have made weeks ago. In the meantime the Guild membership will suffer a 23% pay cut until it is ratified.
Even if they get some of it back after July 20, 5 or 6 weeks with 23% less pay from people who live week to week is painful enough but they may pay more for health insurance as a result of the deal to make up some of the difference.
The Guild membership deserves answers to the questions you pose. I hope they will ask at their next meeting.