December 31, 2007
Anyone watching Barack Obama on the stump in Iowa yesterday (in this case, courtesy of C-Span) must have been struck by the utter listlessness of the candidate, followed by a crowd that listened politely but did little else.
Joe Klein in Time had the same impression -- Obama was just mailing it in. Maybe Obama was just having an off weekend, though he's not picking the most opportune time to have it. But candidates know things that observers don't -- they're polling the race a lot more than we are and are obviously closer to the ground -- and one wonders if Obama knows something about the trends in Iowa that we don't. Admittedly, it's all speculation but something may be afoot. The body language of this campaign certainly suggests the possibility.
December 31, 2007
December 30, 2007
With Thursday looming, here's what could happen in the GOP race to tilt things one way or the other:
Romney: The constant negative attacks keep
working and with a superior organization, Romney grinds out a victory,
with McCain and Thompson cutting into Huckabee's potential totals.
Huckabee: Many of Huckabee's supporters are
evangelical Christians and first-time voters -- under the radar so to
speak -- and so they weren't picked up as much by pollsters nor were
they swayed by the negative attacks all that much either. Any Thompson or
McCain gains come mostly at the expense of Romney.
Again, it's not a prediction but the hunch here is that of the two scenarios, the Huckabee one is likelier.
December 30, 2007
With 96 hours to go, the Democratic race in Iowa is obviously very tight. What are the factors that could break it open for any of the top three?
Clinton: In the final stretch run, last-minute voters decide to go with experience and electability and women who have never been to a caucus before turn out in record numbers.
Obama: The buzz translates into a massive increase in turnout, bolstered by a record youth vote.
Edwards: It turns out that many of those waiting to make up their minds were just waiting to see if Edwards was still viable at the end. Now that he is, they flock to him, much as they did last time. Also, the constant sniping between Clinton and Obama over the last month helps sway Iowa undecideds to go with the third alternative.
Take your pick. For what it's worth -- and this is not a prediction -- the hunch here is that the Edwards scenario is the likeliest of the three.
December 30, 2007
A new MSNBC Iowa poll, if accurate,
contains a new development. In the Democratic race, the three top
contenders are virtually even, according to the poll. But, when the second choices of
Kucinich, Biden, Dodd, and Richardson voters are factored in -- and
these are the candidates unlikely to reach the 15% threshhold virtually
anywhere -- Edwards jumps to a ten-point lead -- 36% to 26% for the other
two.
Again, if accurate, this is hugely significant,
since it more clearly reflects what may happen Thursday night at the
caucuses than just head-to-head polls.
December 30, 2007
As we've warned before, Iowa polls are notoriously unreliable,
for a number of reasons. But it is worth paying attention to the
general trend, if one factors in the results of all the polls and looks
for a tendency. And, in both races, with five days to go, there appears
to be something of a mini-trend.
Compared
to the results, say, two weeks ago for the Democrats, there appears to
have been a slight uptick for Hillary Clinton, translating into a very
small lead in several polls -- though not all. Edwards also appears to be
gaining, according to some polls, moving clearly into
contention. Whether these polls measure accurate trends or they hold up
is another story, since virtually all the leads are within the polls'
margins of error.
For the GOP. Mitt Romney has arrested his slide and is neck and neck with Mike Huckabee.
Remember, this is not a prediction at all of what may happen Thursday night; it's
just a more long-term look at what's happening to the polls over
several weeks.
December 28, 2007
December 27, 2007
This week's Tote Board column looks at how electable each of the major candidates is and concludes that if John McCain can win the GOP nomination, he's the best bet to be the next president.
December 26, 2007
It’s apparent what the problem with the Fred Thompson campaign is: He hasn’t been able to come up with a slogan that encapsulates his unique approach to running for president. Clearly what he needs to do is take some traditional American slogans and adapt them. Here are five suggestions:
-- It’s morning in America – but I’m not getting up until this afternoon.
-- He slept us out of war.
-- Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes – but take a couple of weeks off to think about it.
-- I have a dream. In fact, I try to have as many as possible.
-- Just do it -- though on second thought, why bother?
December 23, 2007
As we've been writing all along,
endorsements -- particulary newspaper ones -- scarcely matter any
longer. But we're stumped to find many cases in modern history where a mainstream
paper went after a mainstream candidate (who wasn't someone like, say, George Wallace) the way the Concord Monitor has
gone after Mitt Romney this morning.
In an editorial that is not an endorsement
(presumably that may come later), the state's third largest paper
delivers a broadside attack on Romney, stating "Mitt Romney, a disquieting figure who sure looks like the next president . . . most surely must be stopped."
That's, well, pretty strong. And, combined with the
other-end-of-the-spectrum Union Leader's endorsement of John McCain and
polls showing the race tightening in NH, Romney's campaign is in
trouble.
December 23, 2007
We’ve received some mail
questioning our odds given the apparent surge by Barack Obama. So,
here’s a brief explanation.
First, odds are not predictions; they’re probabilities.
Second, it’s our view that Hillary is still the probable nominee.
That’s because for Obama to truly get his campaign launched, it’s
generally agreed that he has to win two of the first three contests in
Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. (For purposes of argument,
we’ll treat Iowa as a victory if he finishes second but Hillary
finishes a distant third.)
In contrast, Hillary
can withstand a lesser showing in January – even losing all three. That
isn’t to say she’d be in great shape heading into February but she’d
still be viable.
So where do we stand now? Take Iowa.
According
to the venerable Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com, “[I]f we take into
account both the closeness of the Democratic race and all sources of
potential poll error, we really have no idea who is truly "ahead" at
this point in the race.” In New Hampshire,
that’s pretty much the case too. The polling may be more accurate but
given the closeness of the race and the effect the Iowa results are
likely to have on New Hampshire only five days later, we really have no
idea how the candidates will fare there either.
So, that’s where things stand. Obama has a much tougher road than
Clinton in January because he still trails significantly in the
national numbers and needs to do better accordingly as the race begins.
But any of the three major contenders could still win.
December 21, 2007
December 20, 2007
Tom Tancredo has withdrawn from the GOP race and endorsed Mitt Romney.
Will it make a difference? Well, Tancredo had
virtually no support. So it's hard to see exactly what he thinks he's
transferring to Romney.
Endorsements in presidential politics rarely matter.
This one is certainly not going to be the exception to the rule.
December 20, 2007
December 20, 2007
